pp. 224, 1a edizione 2012 (Codice editore 363.86)
Italy, amongst the major industrial economies of the past century, has not been studied with the same analytic focus of similarly sized economies like France or UK. Finally, Italy’s economy holds peculiar features that make its experience with market discipline and macroeconomic policies over the centuries a unique case study in the long-lasting debate over the optimal design of monetary policies.
Presentazione del volume
There are several good reasons why Italian monetary history deserves to be analysed from a quantitative point of view. First, a full understanding of Italian macroeconomic and monetary history calls for econometric tests on detailed and unifying hypotheses on the long-term economic performance of the country.
Secondly, the Italian "case" is scarcely studied in the quantitative literature at the international level. On a number of important macroeconomic issues, Italy, amongst the major industrial economies of the past century, has not been studied with the same analytic focus and breadth of similarly sized economies like France or the United Kingdom. Finally, as any other country, Italy's economy holds peculiar features that make its experience with market discipline and macroeconomic policies over the centuries a unique case study in the long-lasting debate over the optimal design of monetary policies.
This volume is the result of a collective effort at bridging some of the literature's gaps. The essays' ordering stems from a stylized macroeconomic model of a small open economy. The analysis starts by modelling money supply and demand, then interest rates, the exchange rate and inflation rate. Last, we amalgamate most of our hypotheses within a compact macroeconomic model aimed at checking their overall significance and consistency.
The main message that stands out is that the Italian economy behaves according to Keynesian features in the short run, while in the long run classical features like money neutrality and a vertical aggregate supply function clearly emerge.
Michele Fratianni, Franco Spinelli, Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record
(Introduction; Fiscal Dominance: A Review of the Literature; Tests of Fiscal Dominance; Summary and Conclusions; Appendix. List of Variables Used in the Empirical Work and Source; References)
Franco Spinelli, Carmine Trecroci, The Determinants of the Discount Rate in Italy, 1876-1913: An Empirical and Documentary Analysis
(Introduction; Brief review of the empirical literature; Introduction to the behaviour of Italian official rates under the gold standard; The determinants of discount rates' behaviour: a simple graphical analysis; The econometric analysis on monthly data; The econometric analysis on annual data; The documentary analysis; Concluding remarks; Appendix: The database; References)
Anton Muscatelli, Franco Spinelli, The Long-run Stability of the Demand for Money: Italy 1861-1996
(Introduction; The Historical Background: Monetary Trends in Italy; Estimation Results; Conclusions; Data Appendix; References)
Anton Muscatelli, Franco Spinelli, Gibson's Paradox and Policy Regimes: A Comparison of the Experience in the US, UK and Italy
(Introduction; The Gibson Paradox: A Survey; Interest Rates and Prices in the Long Run: the Case of Italy; Econometric Evidence on the Gibson Paradox; Conclusions; References)
Anton Muscatelli, Franco Spinelli, Fisher, Barro and the Italian Interest Rate, 1845-1990
(Introduction; Interest Rates and Prices in the Long Run: the Case of Italy; Econometric Evidence on the Fisher Effect and the Determination of Nominal Interest Rates; Real Interest Rates, Fiscal Policy and Neoclassical Theory; Conclusions; References)
Franco Spinelli, Fixed Exchange Rates and Adaptive Expectations Monetarism: The Italian Case
(Introduction; Small Open Economies Under Fixed Exchange Rates: A Monetarist Analysis à la David Laidler (1973, 1975, 1978); Empirical Results; Conclusions; Data Appendix; Data Sources; References)
Anton Muscatelli, Franco Spinelli , Carmine Trecroci, Macroeconomic Shocks, Structural Change and Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Historical Data
(Introduction; Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate; Model Specification and Estimation; Estimation Results; Conclusions; Appendix: Tests for Structural Breaks; References)
Alessandra Del Boca , Michele Fratianni , Franco Spinelli, Carmine Trecroci, The Phillips Curve and the Italian Lira, 1861-1998
(Introduction; A brief sketch of prices and inflation from the Monetary
History of Italy; Statistical analysis of the Italian inflation process; Bringing Phillips into the picture; A comparison with the United States and the United Kingdom; Concluding remarks; References)