Clicca qui per scaricare

Reshaping the external constraint. Franco Modigliani, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa and the EMS, 1977-1993
Titolo Rivista: HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY 
Autori/Curatori:  Giandomenico Piluso 
Anno di pubblicazione:  2020 Fascicolo: 2  Lingua: Inglese 
Numero pagine:  23 P. 97-119 Dimensione file:  128 KB
DOI:  10.3280/SPE2020-002006
Il DOI è il codice a barre della proprietà intellettuale: per saperne di più:  clicca qui   qui 


During a decade of stagflation in the 1970s, a sea of changes on the interna-tional stage led to major macroeconomic imbalances that gave central bankers a different role in relation to governments and policy-makers. In Europe, this coin-cided with the relaunching of the project for European integration. The Italian case shows how governments and central bankers interacted in shaping adjustment strategies. The Bank of Italy had a pivotal role in shaping the country’s economic policies, relying on its capacity for economic analysis. The adjustment strategy formulated in the "Pandolfi Plan" of 1978 was conceived largely by an economist at the Bank of Italy, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa. Further developing analyses conducted jointly with Franco Modigliani the previous year, the plan focused on the macroeconomic effects of high labour costs in the wake of a full ("100% and plus") wage indexing and rising government deficits. The policy proposal revolved around a few targets, namely investments and economic growth, and an explicit principle of fairness in the labour market. The Pandolfi Plan pledged to Italy’s en-during participation in the European integration process by combining economic development with adhesion to the "European choice", which meant joining the European Monetary System (EMS). The European agreements governing EMS membership replaced the standard external economic constraints, i.e. the balance of payments and exchange rate, with a new kind of semi-legal external constraint ingrained in the governance structure of the European Community. The nature of this new semi-legal external constraint as a fiscal discipline mechanism eventually emerged more clearly with the Maastricht Treaty.


Keywords: European Monetary System-EMS, Franco Modigliani, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, external constraints, Keynesian economics, Ordoliberalism, optimal currency area
Jel Code:  A11, B31, E42, E58, F15, F33, H12, H6, J08

  1. Asso P.F. (2007). Franco Modigliani e l’Italia. In P. F. Asso (ed.). Franco Modi-gliani. L’impegno civile di un economista, Scritti editi e inediti sull’economia e la società italiana. Siena, Fondazione Monte dei Paschi di Siena: 9-49.
  2. Baffi P. (1978). Il sistema monetario europeo e la partecipazione dell’Italia. The-ma, 7-19.
  3. Baffi P. (1989). Il negoziato sullo SME. Bancaria, 45(1): 67-70.
  4. Baffigi A. (2016). L’integrazione europea come questione di social choice nel pen-siero di Federico Caffè. Ricerche di storia economica e sociale, 2(1-2):183-208.
  5. Balassone F., Francese M., Pace A. (2013). Public debt and Economic Growth: Ita-ly’s first 150 years. In Toniolo G. (ed.). Oxford Handbook of the Italian Econ-omy. Oxford, Oxford University Press: 517-530.
  6. Bank of Italy (1972). The Governor’s Concluding Remarks. Roma, Bank of Italy.
  7. Bank of Italy (1974). The Governor’s Concluding Remarks. Roma, Bank of Italy.
  8. Bank of Italy (1975). The Governor’s Concluding Remarks. Roma, Bank of Italy.
  9. Bank of Italy (1978). The Governor’s Concluding Remarks. Roma, Bank of Italy.
  10. Bank of Italy (1981). The Governor’s Concluding Remarks. Roma, Bank of Italy.
  11. Brunnermeier M. K., H. James and J.-P. Landau (2016). The Euro and the Battles of Ideas. Princeton and Oxford, Princeton University Press.
  12. Campus M. (2015). Il governo del ‘vincolo esterno’: interazione, compatibilità e limiti del sistema economico italiano nella crisi degli anni Settanta. In Bagnato B., Guderzo M., Nuti L. (eds.). Nuove questioni di storia delle relazioni inter-nazionali. Roma, Laterza: 266-294.
  13. Carli G. (1993). Cinquant’anni di vita italiana, in collaboration with Paolo Peluf-fo. Roma, Laterza.
  14. Ciampi C.A. (2011). In ricordo di Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa. Moneta e Credito, 64(253): 3-8.
  15. Ciocca P. (2004). Il contributo di via Nazionale. In Garofalo G., Graziani A. (eds.) (2004). La formazione degli economisti in Italia (1950-1975). Bologna, il Mu-lino, 579-600.
  16. Conte L. (2008). L’azione della Banca d’Italia (1948-93). In Cova A., La France-sca S., Moioli A., Bermond C. (eds.). Storia d’Italia, Annali, 23, La Banca, To-rino, Einaudi: 661-687.
  17. Dyson K., Featherstone K. (1999). The Road to Maastricht: Negotiating Economic and Monetary Union. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  18. Eichengreen B. (2007). The European Economy Since 1945, Princeton, Princeton University Press.
  19. Eichengreen B., Boltho A. (2010). The economic impact of European integration. In Broadberry S., O’Rourke K. (eds.). The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2, 267-295.
  20. Ferguson N., Maier Ch. S., Manela E., Sargent D.J. (eds.) (2010). The Shock of the Global. The 1970s in Perspective. Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press.
  21. Fisher S. (1987). International Macroeconomic Policy Coordinatiton. NBER Work-ing Paper 2244.
  22. Forder J. (2003). Central bank independence: Economic theory, evidence and po-litical legitimacy. International Papers in Political Economy, 10(2): 1-61.
  23. Fratianni M., Spinelli F. (1991). Storia monetaria d’Italia. Milano, Mondadori.
  24. Fratianni M., Spinelli F. (2001). Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record. Explorations in Economic History, 38(2): 252-272.
  25. Giavazzi F., Giovannini A. (1987). Models of the EMS: Is Europe a Greater Deutschmark Area?. In Bryant R.C., Portes R. (eds.). Global Macroeconomics. New York, St Martin’s Press: 237-265.
  26. Giavazzi F., Micossi S., Miller M. (eds.) (1988). The European Monetary System. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  27. Giavazzi F., Pagano M. (1988). The Advantage of Tying One’s Hands: EMS disci-pline and Central Bank Credibility. European Economic Review, 24(5): 1055-82.
  28. Giavazzi F., Spaventa L. (1989). Italy: the real effects of inflation and disinflation. Economic Policy, 4(8): 133-171.
  29. Gigliobianco A. (2006). Via Nazionale. Banca d’Italia e classe dirigente. Cento anni di storia. Roma, Donzelli.
  30. Gigliobianco A. (2019). Guido Carli: finanziare gli investimenti. Bancaria, 75(1): 81-89.
  31. Gualtieri R. (2009). L’Europa come vincolo esterno. In Craveri P., Varsori A. (eds.). L’Italia nella costruzione europea. Un bilancio storico (1957-2007). Milano, FrancoAngeli, 313-331.
  32. IMF (International Monetary Fund) (1979). Annual Report. Washington, IMF.
  33. James H. (2012). Making the European Monetary Union. The Role of the Commit-tee of Central Bank Governors and the Origins of the European Central Bank. Cambridge, Mass., The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
  34. Judt T. (2010). Postwar Europe. A History of Europe Since 1945. London, Vintage (first edition London, Heinemann, 2005).
  35. La Malfa G., Modigliani F. (1966). Su alcuni aspetti della congiuntura e della poli-tica monetaria nell’ultimo quinquennio. Moneta e credito, 19(75): 211-257.
  36. La Malfa G., Modigliani F. (1967). Inflation, Balance of Payments Deficit and their cure through Monetary Policy: The Italian Example. BNL Quarterly Re-view, 20(80): 3-47.
  37. Lawson N. (1993). The View from No. 11: Memoirs of a Tory Radical. London, Bantam.
  38. Ludlow P. (1982). The Making of the European Monetary System. London, But-terworth.
  39. Maes I. (2002). Economic Thought and the Making of European Monetary Union. Cheltenham, Edward Elgar.
  40. Maes I. (2013). Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa: Macroeconomic and Monetary Thought, and Policy-making at the European Commission. History of Econom-ic Thought and Policy, 2: 21-43.
  41. Maes I., Quaglia L. (2006). Germany and Italy: conflicting policy paradigms to-wards European monetary integration?. Constitutional Political Economy, 17(3): 189-205.
  42. Masera R. (1988). L’unificazione monetaria e lo SME. L’esperienza dei primi otto anni. Bologna, il Mulino.
  43. Masera R., Triffin R. (eds.) (1984). Europe’s Money. Problems of European Mone-tary Co-ordination and Integration. Oxford, Clarendon.
  44. Masini F. (2004). SMEmorie della lira. Gli economisti italiani e l’adesione al Si-stema monetario europeo. Milano, FrancoAngeli.
  45. Masini F. (2014). A History of the theories on Optimum Currency Areas. The Eu-ropean Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 21(6): 1015-1038.
  46. Masini F. (2016). Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa: EMU as the Anchor Stone for Building a Federal Europe. In K. Dyson and I. Maes (eds.). Architects of the Euro. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 193-211.
  47. Modigliani F. (1975). Se un operaio guadagnasse mezzo milione di lire al mese. Corriere della Sera, 9 March.
  48. Modigliani F. (1978). SME. I pro e i contro per l’Italia. Corriere della Sera, 1 De-cember.
  49. Modigliani F. (1999). Avventure di un economista. Roma, Laterza.
  50. Modigliani F. (1993). Ciampi, occhio allo SME. Corriere della Sera, 5 May.
  51. Modigliani F., La Malfa G. (1999). Quella banca così non va. Corriere della Sera, 3 January.
  52. Modigliani F., La Malfa G. (2018). Un’agenda per l’euro. Scritti 1998-2000. Ro-ma, Fondazione Ugo La Malfa.
  53. Modigliani F., Padoa-Schioppa T. (1977). La politica economica in una economia con salari indicizzati al 100 o più. Moneta e credito, 30(117): 3-53.
  54. Modigliani F., Padoa-Schioppa T. (1978). The Management of an Economy with ‘100 % or Plus’ Wage Indexation. Princeton, Essays in International Finance, 130, December.
  55. Mortensen J. (1990). Federalism vs Co-ordination: Macroeconomic Policy in the European Community. Brussels, CEPS.
  56. Mourlon-Druol E. (2012). A Europe Made of Money. The Emergence of the Euro-pean Monetary System. Ithaca (NY), Cornell University Press.
  57. Mourlon-Druol E. (2016). A new monetary system in a changing polity. Central banks, the ECC and the creation of the European Monetary System. In Feier-tag O., Margairaz M. (eds.). Les Banques centrales et l’État-nation. Paris, Sci-ences-Po Les Presses: 563-580.
  58. Obstfeld M., Taylor A.M. (2005). Global Capital Markets. Integration, Crisis, and Growth. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  59. Ossola R. (1978). L’Italia e lo SME. Bancaria, 34(8): 133-43.
  60. Padoa-Schioppa T. (1994). The Road to Monetary Union in Europe. The Emperor, the King, and the Genius. Oxford, Clarendon Press.
  61. Padoa-Schioppa T. (2014). In Carli F. (ed.). La figura e l’opera di Guido Carli, 2, Testimonianze. Torino, Bollati Boringhieri, 414-439.
  62. Papadia F. (2014). Tommaso Padoa Schioppa. In Dizionario biografico degli ita-liani. Roma, Istituto della Enciclopedia Italiana, vol. 80, 185-189.
  63. Preda D. (2017). Il ruolo di Giulio Andreotti nella nascita del Sistema Monetario Europeo. In Lefebvre d’Ovidio F., Micheletta L. (eds.). Giulio Andreotti e l’Europa. Roma, Edizioni di Storia e Letteratura, 214-219.
  64. Ricciuti R. (2008). The Quest for a Fiscal Rule. Cliometrica, 2(3): 259-274.
  65. Rossi S. (2019). Postfazione. In P. Baffi. Economista e banchiere centrale. Gli in-terventi per l’Associazione Bancaria Italiana. Roma, Laterza: 259-261.
  66. Savona P. (2018). Come un incubo e come un sogno. Soveria Mannelli, Rubbetti-no.
  67. Singleton J. (2011). Central Banking in the Twentieth Century. Cambridge, Cam-bridge University Press.
  68. Spaventa S. (1980). Italy joins the EMS. A Political History. Research Institute, Johns Hopkins University Bologna Center, Occasional Paper, 32.
  69. Tosti E. (2020). La ricostruzione della bilancia dei pagamenti e della posizione pa-trimoniale sull’estero dell’Italia (1970-1999). Bank of Italy, Questioni di eco-nomia e finanza, Occasional paper, 581.
  70. Varsori A. (2010). La Cenerentola d’Europa. L’Italia e l’integrazione europea dal 1947 a oggi. Soveria Mannelli, Rubbettino.
  71. Warlouzet L. (2018). Governing Europe in a Globalizing World. Neoliberalism and its Alternatives following the 1973 Oil Crisis. London-New York, Rout-ledge.
  72. Grilli E. (1993). The European Community and the Developing Countries. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  73. Harper J.L. (1987). L’America e la ricostruzione dell’Italia. Bologna, il Mulino.
  74. Helleiner E. (2009). Central Bankers as Good Neighbours: US Money Doctors in Latin America in the 1940s. Financial History Review, 16(1): 5-25.
  75. Helleiner E. (2016). The Forgotten Foundations of Bretton Woods. International Development and the Making of Post-war International Order. Ithaca, Cornell University Press.
  76. Hopkins A.G. (2019). An Economic History of West Africa. Abingdon: Routledge.
  77. Krotz U., Patel K.K., Romero F. (2020). Europe’s Cold War Relations. The EC towards a Global Role. London, Bloomsbury.
  78. La Malfa G. (2014). Cuccia e il segreto di Mediobanca. Milano, Feltrinelli.
  79. Lorenzini S. (2019). Development. A Cold War History. Princeton, Princeton University Press.
  80. Mammarella G., Cacace P. (2006). La politica estera dell’Italia. Dallo Stato unitario ai giorni nostri. Rome-Bari, Laterza.
  81. Martelli M., Procino M. (eds.) (2007). Enrico Cuccia in Africa Orientale (1936-1937). Milano, FrancoAngeli.
  82. Morone A.M. (2011). L’ultima colonia. Come l’Italia è tornata in Africa, 1950-1960. Rome-Bari, Laterza.
  83. Piluso G. (2005). Mediobanca. Tra regole e mercato. Milano, Egea.
  84. Sbrana F. (2006). Portare l’Italia nel mondo. L’IMI e il credito all’esportazione. Bologna, il Mulino.
  85. Schenk C. (1997). Monetary Institutions in Newly Independent Countries: the experience of Malaya, Ghana and Nigeria in the 1950s. Financial History Review, 4: 181-198.
  86. Segreto L. (2008). Il caso Mediobanca. In. A. Cova, S. La Francesca (eds). Storia d’Italia. Annali, 23. La Banca. Torino, Einaudi, 785-823.
  87. Unger C. (2018). Postwar Development Aid: Defined by Decolonization, the Cold War, and European Integration. In Macekura S., Manela E. (eds.). The Development Century: A Global History. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 240-260.



  1. Impossibile comunicare con Crossref: The request was aborted: Could not create SSL/TLS secure channel.

Giandomenico Piluso, in "HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY" 2/2020, pp. 97-119, DOI:10.3280/SPE2020-002006

   

FrancoAngeli è membro della Publishers International Linking Association associazione indipendente e no profit per facilitare l'accesso degli studiosi ai contenuti digitali nelle pubblicazioni professionali e scientifiche