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Previsioni demografiche e sostenibilità della spesa pensionistica in Italia
Journal Title: STUDI ECONOMICI  
Author/s: Aldo Barba 
Year:  2008 Issue: 94 Language: Italian 
Pages:  29 Pg. 65-93 FullText PDF:  316 KB

Demographic Forecasts and Sustainability of the Italian Pension Expenditure - This article discusses the effects that changes in the age structure of the Italian population could exert on the sustainability of public pension provision. After discussing the poor performance of demographic forecasts, we discuss increases in fertility and immigration flows as alternative ways to contrast the impending ageing of the population. We then examine the constraints that a shrinking labour force may exert on the level of employment, taking into account the presence of massive disguised unemployment. The paper maintains that in the medium and long term the demographic scenario has to be considered as not exogenous with respect to the economic stance. In this connection, expected aggregate demand and income distribution changes are considered of crucial importance.

Aldo Barba, in "STUDI ECONOMICI " 94/2008, pp. 65-93, DOI:

   

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