Clicca qui per scaricare

Puzzling Out The First Oil Shock. History, Politics and the Macroeconomy in a Forty-Year Retrospective
Titolo Rivista: HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY 
Autori/Curatori: Giovanni Covi 
Anno di pubblicazione:  2015 Fascicolo: Lingua: Italiano 
Numero pagine:  35 P. 57-91 Dimensione file:  511 KB
DOI:  10.3280/SPE2015-002004
Il DOI è il codice a barre della proprietà intellettuale: per saperne di più:  clicca qui   qui 


The paper aims to understand if the First Oil Shock has produced long-term effects to the international economic system and its fundamentals. Herein a historical perspective will be used as an interpretative tool in order to discern the causes of the events of 1973 and its long-term consequences on the world economy during the four decades following the First Oil Shock. The circumstances and the causes that led to the shock, the events during the conflict, and the changes in the structure of the energy market, play a key role for the analysis and will be investigated according to the historical specificity. In the end, a statistical analysis is developed in order to shed light on the oil price GDP growth conundrum, to discover that for economic growth, volatility matters more than the average price of oil.


Keywords: Oil dependence - Economic growth - OPEC - Economic development - Resource Economics
Jel Code: E52 - P28 - O11 - Q32 - Q33 - Q43

  1. Acemoglu D. and J.A. Robinson (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origin of Power, Prosperity and Poverty, London, Profile Books.
  2. Adelman M.A. (1995). Genie Out of the Bottle. World Oil Since 1970, Cambridge, Mass., The MIT Press.
  3. Alhaji A.F. (2005). The Oil Weapon: Past, Present and Future, The Oil and Gas Journal, 103 (17).
  4. Amsden A.H. (2001). The Rise of the Rest: Challenges to the West from Late-Industrializing Economies, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  5. Barnett V. (1998). Kondratiev and the Dynamics of Economic Development, London, Macmillan.
  6. Barsky R.B. and L. Kilian (2004). Oil and the Macroeconomy since the 1970s, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4): 115-34., 10.1257/0895330042632708DOI: 10.1257/0895330042632708
  7. Basher S.A. and S. Fachin (2011). The Long-run Relationship between Savings and Investment in Oil-exporting Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Gulf Arab States”, MPRA paper n. 29077: 1-26
  8. Basosi D. (2012). Finanza & petrolio. Gli Stati Uniti, l’oro nero e l’economia politica internazionale, Venezia, StudioLT2 Edizioni.
  9. Bernanke B.S., M. Gertler and M. Watson (1997). Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1: 91-142.
  10. Blanchard O.J. and J. Galì (2007). The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from 1970s?, NBER Working Paper No.13368, Cambridge, Mass.: 1-77.
  11. Blanchard O. and M. Riggi (2011). Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s? A Structural Interpretation of Changes in the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Prices in the US”, Working Papers, No. 835, Banca d’Italia.
  12. Bodenstein M., C.J. Erceg and L. Guerrieri (2010). Oil Shocks and External Adjustment, Journal of International Economics, No.83: 168-184., 10.1057/imfer.2012.19DOI: 10.1057/imfer.2012.19
  13. Bohm Bawerk E. [2010(1914)]. Control or Economic Law, L. von Mises Institute, Auburn, Alabama; first appeared in the Zeitschrift für Volkswirtshaft, Sozialpolitik und Verwaltung, Volume XXIII (1914): 205-71.
  14. Boyce R. (1974). The Opec Agreements and Economic Development, Master Thesis, McGill University, Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research, Master of arts.
  15. Humphreys M., J. Sachs and J.E. Stiglitz (eds.)(2007). Escaping The Resource Curse, New York, Columbia University Press.
  16. Bruno M. and J.D. Sachs (1985). Economics of Worldwide Stagflation, Oxford, Basil Blackwell. Burbidge J. and A. Harrison (1984). Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions, International Economic Review, 25(2): 459-84., 10.2307/2526209DOI: 10.2307/2526209
  17. Chang H.J. (2003). Kicking Away the Ladder. Development Strategy in Historical Perspective, London, Anthem Press.
  18. Clark J.G. (1990). The Political Economy of World Energy, Chapel Hill and London, The University of North Carolina Press.
  19. Covi G. (2013). A Case Study of an Advanced Dutch Disease: the Russian Oil, MPRA Paper, No. 46670. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/46670.
  20. Di Nolfo E. (2000). Storia delle relazioni internazionali, Bari, Edizioni Laterza.
  21. Easterly W. (2001). The Lost Decades: Developing Countries’ Stagnation in Spite of Policy Reform 1980-1998, Journal of Economic Growth, 6: 135-57., 10.1023/A:1011378507540DOI: 10.1023/A:1011378507540
  22. Eichengreen B. (2001). The Exorbitant Privilege, the Rise and the Fall of the Dollar, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  23. Faloppa A. (2013). Petronumbers: Oil Statistics and Changing Power Relations, Master thesis in International Relations, Ca’ Foscari, University of Venice.
  24. Fattouh B. (2006). The Origins and Evolution of the Current International Oil Pricing System, in Mabro (ed.)(2006).
  25. Ferguson N. et al. (eds.)(2010). The Shock of the Global: the 1970s in Perspective, Cambridge, Ma., Harvard University Press.
  26. Finn M.G. (2000). Perfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32(3): 400-16.
  27. Forni L., A. Gerali, A. Notarpietro and M. Pisani (2012). Euro Area and Global Oil Shocks: An Empirical Model-Based Analysis, Working Papers, Banca d’Italia, No. 873: 1-53.
  28. Galbraith J.K. (1971). The New Industrial State, New York, New American Library.
  29. Gerschenkron A. (1962). Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, Cambridge, Ma., The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
  30. Gisser M. and T.H. Goodwin (1986). Crude Oil and Macroeconomy: Test of Some Popular Notions, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18: 95-103., 10.2307/1992323DOI: 10.2307/1992323
  31. Gordon R.G. (2012). Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds, NBER Working Paper No. 18315., 10.3386/w18315DOI: 10.3386/w18315
  32. Graf R. (2012). Making Use of the ‘Oil Weapon’: Western Industrialized Countries and Arab Petro-politics, Diplomatic History, 36(1): 185-208., 10.1111/j.1467-7709.2011.01014DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-7709.2011.01014
  33. Hallwood P. and S. Sinclair (2010). Opec and the Non-oil Developing Countries in the 1970s, MPRA paper No. 24463: 1-21.
  34. Hamilton J.D. (1983). Oil and the Macro-economy since World War II, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91 (2): 228-48. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1832055.
  35. -------(1996). This is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship, Journal of Monetary Economics, No. 38: 215-20., 10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01282-2DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01282-2
  36. -------(2003). What is an Oil Shock?, Journal of Econometrics, 113(8): 363-98., 10.3386/w7755DOI: 10.3386/w7755
  37. -------(2009). Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 40(1): 215-26., 10.3386/w15002DOI: 10.3386/w15002
  38. -------(2011). Historical Oil Shocks, NBER Working Papers, No. 16790: 1-51. Hodgson G.M. (2001). How Economics Forgot History. The Problem of Historical Specificity in Social Science, London and New York, Routledge.
  39. Hogendorn J.S. (1995). Economic Development, Harpers Collins, New York.
  40. Kaplan M. and P.L. Cuciti (eds.)(1986). The Great Society and its Legacy: Twenty Years of US Social Policy, Durham, Duke University Press, NC.
  41. Kilian L. (2009). Not All Oil Price shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market, American Economic Review, 99(3): 1053-69., 10.1257/aer.99.3.1053DOI: 10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
  42. Kissinger H. (1982). Years of Upheaval, Boston, MA, Little, Brown and Co.
  43. Krugman P. R., and A.J. Venables (1995). Globalization and the Inequality of Nations, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4): 857–80. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2946642.
  44. Kuipers S.K. and G.J. Lanjouw (eds.)(1980). Prospects of Economic Growth, Amsterdam, North Holland Pub.
  45. Ilie L. (2007). Economic Considerations Regarding the First Oil Shock, 1973-1974, MPRA paper n. 6431: 1-6.
  46. IMF (1988). World Economic Outlook, Washington D.C.
  47. IMF (2000). The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy, Paper prepared by the IMF Research Department, 8 December, Washington D.C.
  48. IMF (2001). World Economic Outlook, Washington D.C.
  49. Jabber P. (1978). Conflict and Cooperation in Opec: Prospects for the Next Decade”, International Organization, 32(2): 301-49.
  50. Kinzer S. (2003). All the Shah’s Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror, Hoboken, John Wiley and Sons.
  51. Kuipers S.K. and G.J. Lanjouw (eds,)(1980). Prospects of Economic Growth, North Holland: Oxford.
  52. Mabro R. (1978). The Price of Oil: Problems of Its Administration, Opec Review, II (3): 31-6.
  53. ----------(2002). The Oil Weapon, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
  54. ----------(2005). The International Oil Price Regime, The Journal of Energy Literature, XI(1): 3-20.
  55. ----------(ed.)(2006). Oil in the 21st Century, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  56. ----------(2008). The Oil Price Conundrum, Oxford Energy Forum, Issue 74: 12-4.
  57. Marglin S. and J. Schor (1990). The Golden Age of Capitalism, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  58. Maugeri L. (2006). The Age of Oil: the Mythology, History and Future of the World’s Most Controversial Resource, Westport, Praeger.
  59. Milgrom P. and J. Roberts (1992). Economics, Organization and Management, Englewood Cliff, New Jersey Prentice Hall.
  60. Mitchell T. (2011). Carbon Democracy. Political Power in the Age of Oil, London and New York Verso.
  61. Mork K.A. (1989). Oil and the Macro-economy When Prices go Up and Down: An Extention of Hamilton’s Results, Journal of Political Economy, 97(3): 740-4.
  62. Mork K.A., H.T. Mysen and O. Olsen (1994). Macroeconomic Reponses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries, The Energy Journal, 15(4): 19-35.
  63. North D. (1977). Markets and Other Allocation Systems in History: the Challenge of Karl Polanyi, Journal of European Economic History, n.6: 703-16.
  64. ----------(1990). Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge
  65. Mass., Cambridge University Press. ----------(2005). Understanding the Process of Economic Change, Princeton, Princeton
  66. University Press.
  67. Olson M. (1988). The Productivity Slowdown, the Oil Shocks and the Real Cycle, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(4): 43-69., 10.1257/jep.2.4.43DOI: 10.1257/jep.2.4.43
  68. Oppenheim V.H. (19976-1977). Why the Oil Prices Go Up: We Pushed Them, Foreign Policy, 25: 32-3.
  69. Pachauri R.K. (1985). The Political Economy of Global Energy, Baltimore, The John Hopkins University Press.
  70. Preiser E. (1952). Property and Power in the Theory of Distribution, Economic Papers, n.2; 206-20.
  71. Rotemberg J.J. and M. Woodford (1996). Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28(4): 549-77.
  72. Segal P. (2007). Why do Oil Price Shocks no Longer Shock?, Working Paper M.35, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, University of Oxford., 10.1093/oxrep/grr001DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grr001
  73. Skeet I. (1988). Opec: Twenty-five Years of Prices and Politics, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  74. Spiro D.E. (1999). The Hidden Hand of American Hegemony, Petrodollar Recycling and International Markets, Ithaca, New York, Cornell University Press.
  75. Stiglitz J.E. (2003). The Roaring Nineties, W.W. Norton & Company, New York
  76. Truman H.S. (1949). Inaugural Address, January 20, 1949Triffin R. (1961). Gold and the Dollar Crisis: the Future of Convertibility, New Haven, Yale University Press.
  77. World Bank (1993). The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  78. Zwan A. Van Der (1980). On the Assessment of the Kondratiev Cycle and Related Issues, in Kuipers and Lanjouw (Eds.)(1980): 183-222.

Giovanni Covi, in "HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY" 2/2015, pp. 57-91, DOI:10.3280/SPE2015-002004

   

FrancoAngeli è membro della Publishers International Linking Association associazione indipendente e no profit per facilitare l'accesso degli studiosi ai contenuti digitali nelle pubblicazioni professionali e scientifiche