We depict the different models of likely future value chains for agro food sector. The starting points of the reflection are the main coming geo-physical constraints acknowledged by most scientists (rising sea level; climate disaster higher frequency; scarcity of concentrated energy and other material resources). Thus the effects of the coming changes (and especially the effects of the global warming) on agriculture are a regular study topic, while the effects of the other constraints, and the likely evolution of the food systems as a whole, remain quite overlooked. When there is a general scarcity of resources (as it is the case for oil and minerals over the coming decades), the present value chains may no longer function. We draw from these evidences to design 6 models of food value chains (including farming, processing and delivery systems). We therefore describe the models: "Today" (any food, in-store selling everywhere, at any time); "Amazon" (any food, at home in metropoles, at any time); "Cart" (mainly local food, in streets of cities and villages, seasonal products); "Roman villa" (local food, at farm, seasonal products); "Survival" (energetic food, specific location, in response to disasters or to "hunger gap"); "Export foods" (spices, salt etc., at any time). Only the last four together will be frugal enough to be compliant with the future geo-physical constraints. We also explore some consequences in terms of the future way of life, around the topics of agricultural work and cities.
Keywords: Forecast, food security, food system, diversity, frugal
Jel Code: Q10, Q130, O330