Emilio Gerelli

Catastrofismo e terremoti

Partendo dall’analisi dei messaggi di previsione di catastrofe diffusi dai catastrofisti, il volume esamina alcuni dei più importanti capisaldi del pensiero catastrofista, e si focalizza poi sull’analisi della gestione di alcuni importanti terremoti del passato, sin dal terremoto di Lisbona del 1755, che ha aperto la via alla sismologia e alla conoscenza delle misure utili ad affrontare questo tipo di catastrofe minimizzandone l’impatto.

cod. 364.185

Rita Cellerino, Emilio Gerelli

Blackout elettrici: una lezione utile


Fascicolo: 3 / 2004

On September 28, 2003, Italy ran without electricity supply for more than 12 hours because of an accident. However, shortly before this accident, during the summer, already five blackouts had taken place. This shows that beside some occasional circumstances (which we analyse), the causes of such too frequent system failures are also structural and due especially to a long-term shortage in electricity supply. We therefore investigate such causes, due in particular to the Malthusian policy implemented in recent years by the former electricity monopolist ENEL (still holding considerable market power), the complicated laws regulating the siting of electricity plants, the NIMBY sindrome, for which we propose some possible treatment to ease negotiations among local communities and industry. We conclude by discussing the possible introduction of capacity payment, the legislation underway to provide an incentive to the building of new electricity production plants. We also argue that the process of privatization of electricity production undertaken must be completed, so that consumers may reap the advantages of lower electricity prices. However at the same time a better regulation and definition of the public service obligations which private firms must bear is needed to avoid further damaging blackouts.

Emilio Gerelli

Mito e realtà dei cambiamenti climatici globali


Fascicolo: 5 / 2002

Is man-madeglobal warming a scientific reality? We show that this is not the case by dealing with the following facts: I. Temperature measurements for the last 150 years are doubtful - II. The complex models dealing with the forecasts about the impact of greenhouse gases on the global temperature have a low, if any, predictive capacity - III. Also the models developed for the carbon cycle are far from being satisfactory - IV. The cause of global warming (if any) could be solar activity rather than greenhouse gases emissions - V. The choice of the Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is politically biased - VI. The Policymakers Summaries prepared by the IPCCare as well politically biased towards doomsday predictions - VII. It may however be possible to conclude that the impact of the IPCCmay be of some use in fostering environmental policies. JEL N50

Sabino Cassese, Emilio Gerelli


La deregolamentazione amministrativa e legislativa

cod. 880.15