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Problemi della previsione in psichiatria
Titolo Rivista: PSICOTERAPIA E SCIENZE UMANE 
Autori/Curatori: Andrea Angelozzi 
Anno di pubblicazione:  2021 Fascicolo: 4  Lingua: Italiano 
Numero pagine:  24 P. 623-646 Dimensione file:  394 KB
DOI:  10.3280/PU2021-004005
Il DOI è il codice a barre della proprietà intellettuale: per saperne di più:  clicca qui   qui 


Sono esaminati vari problemi relativi alla previsione in psichiatria. I dati disponibili mostrano, in modo simile alle scienze sociali, ampi limiti nella capacità previsionale, specie per quanto riguarda il suicidio, la violenza e altri aspetti comportamentali. Vengono esaminate le difficoltà che nascono dal cercare di derivare il futuro della persona dal suo passato, la mancata coerenza fra aspetti di personalità e possibili comportamenti e il privilegio dato a strumenti psicopatologici incentrati sul singolo caso, rispetto a quelli attuariali con valutazioni testistiche e statistiche. Vengono anche evidenziati i numerosi bias cognitivi che distorcono le previsioni, in particolare l’errore fondamentale di attribuzione, che privilegia aspetti personologici rispetto a quelli situazionali. Ma altri bias hanno una importante azione distorsiva, da quelli della rappresentatività a quelli della disponibilità, da quelli statistici, al framing o al priming. Emerge una psichiatria molto legata nelle pratiche ancora al senso comune e alla folk psychology, con la ricchezza ma anche i molti errori che la caratterizzano. Di fatto esiste una modesta capacità previsionale riconosciuta alla psicologia popolare e alla psichiatria, ma è legata più a vincoli situazionali che a modelli personologici e psicopatologici e in ogni caso scarsamente affidabile per la previsione clinica in psichiatria.


Keywords: Previsione in psichiatria; Suicidio; Errore di attribuzione; Personalità e comportamenti; Bias cognitivi

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Andrea Angelozzi, in "PSICOTERAPIA E SCIENZE UMANE" 4/2021, pp. 623-646, DOI:10.3280/PU2021-004005

   

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