Clicca qui per scaricare

Can a quantitative approach be mitigated? Proposals for the application of the "early warnings" required by the new Italian Insolvency Code
Titolo Rivista: FINANCIAL REPORTING 
Autori/Curatori: Fabrizio Bava, Massimo Cane, Melchior Gromis di Trana 
Anno di pubblicazione:  2020 Fascicolo: Lingua: Inglese 
Numero pagine:  29 P. 33-61 Dimensione file:  449 KB
DOI:  10.3280/FR2020-002002
Il DOI è il codice a barre della proprietà intellettuale: per saperne di più:  clicca qui   qui 


In compliance with European regulations, the new Italian "Insolvency Code" introduced new tools to prevent future financial crises in businesses ("early warn-ings"). Their aim is to highlight future insolvency issues, to enable timely action in order to avert the potential crisis for as long as possible.V This mechanism will come into force on 15 August 2020. Based on a previous investigation that identified the most sensitive financial ratios for evaluating a go-ing concern, this study proposes and tests a possible approach which combines generic quantitative indicators with a case-by-case solution. A discriminant analysis was made on a pairwise sample of Italian non-listed small and medium-sized companies (SMEs). The proposed model overcomes the problem that arose from a combined interpretation of the indicators, and also it acts as a tool that can deter-mine the level of risk within each situation. This approach aims to limit the rigidity produced by common quantitative thresholds, thereby reducing false positives and negatives, ensuring an automatic reporting process that can preserve the efficiency of the early warning mechanism. Furthermore, our proposal is better suited to SMEs, since it is based on financial statements rather than forecasts.


Keywords: Insolvency, crisis, financial indicators, early warnings.
Jel Code: M41, G14, G33, C41

  1. Altman E.I. (1968), Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy, The Journal of Finance, 23(4), pp. 589-609.
  2. Altman E.I., Hotchkiss E. (2005), Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: Predict and Avoid Bankruptcy, Analyze and Invest in Distressed Debt (3rd edition). (New York: John Wiley & Sons)., DOI: 10.1002/9781118267806
  3. Altman E.I., Danovi A., Falini A. (2013), Z-Score Models’ application to Italian companies subject to extraordinary administration, Journal of Applied Finance (Formerly Financial Practice and Education), 23(1).
  4. Altman E.I., Iwanicz-Drozdowska M., Laitinen E.K., Suvas A. (2014), Distressed Firm and Bankruptcy Prediction in an International Context: A review and empirical analysis of Altman's Z-score model, Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 28(2), pp. 131-171.
  5. Altman E.I., Sabato G. (2007), Modelling credit risk for SMEs: Evidence from the U.S. market, Abacus, 43(3), pp. 332-357,
  6. Bava F., Gromis di Trana M. (2019.a), ISA 570: Italian Auditors’ and Academics’ Perceptions of the Going Concern Opinion, Australian Accounting Review, 29(1), pp. 112-123.
  7. Bava F., Gromis di Trana M. (2019.b), Big4 Versus Non-Big4 Opinion about the Going Concern Assessment: A Survey, International Journal of Business and Management, 14(2), pp. 87-98.
  8. Bava F., Devalle A. (2019), Indici di allerta della crisi differenziati in base alle dimensioni aziendali (Eutekne.info).
  9. Beaver W.H., McNichols M.F., Rhie J.W. (2005), Have financial statements become less informative? Evidence from the ability of financial ratios to predict bankruptcy, Review of Accounting Studies, 10(1), pp. 93-122.
  10. Begley J., Ming J., Watts S. (1996), Bankruptcy classification errors in the 1980s: An empirical analysis of Altman’s and Ohlson’s models, Review of Accounting Studies, 1(4), pp. 267-284., DOI: 10.1007/BF00570833
  11. Bini L., Dainelli F., Giunta F. (2011), Country effects on European mandatory disclosure of financial key performance indicators, Financial Reporting, 1, pp. 73-91., DOI: 10.3280/FR2011-001004
  12. Bini M. (2019), Procedura di allerta: indicatori della crisi e obbligo di segnalazione da parte degli organi di controllo, Le Società, 4.
  13. Brodi E. (2018), Tempestiva emersione e gestione della crisi d’impresa. Riflessioni sul disegno di un efficiente «sistema di allerta e composizione», Quaderni di Economia e Finanza, 440.
  14. Celli M. (2015), Can Z-Score Model Predict Listed Companies’ Failures in Italy? An Empirical Test, International Journal of Business and Management, 10(3), pp. 57-66.
  15. Cerved (2018), Riforma legge fallimentare: quali soglie per il regime di allerta?, --https://know.cerved.com/imprese-mercati/legge-fallimentare-allerta-per-crisi.
  16. De Matteis S. (2017), L’emersione anticipata della crisi d’impresa, Quaderni di Giurisprudenza Commerciale, p. 321.
  17. Edmister R. (1972), An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis for Small Business Failure Prediction, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 7(2), pp. 1477-1493., DOI: 10.2307/2329929
  18. Feng M., Li C. (2014), Are Auditors Professionally Skeptical? Evidence from Auditors’ Going‐concern Opinions and Management Earnings Forecasts, Journal of Accounting Research, 52(5), pp. 1061-1085., DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12064
  19. Frost C. (1997), Disclosure Policy Choices of UK Firms Receiving Modified Audit Reports, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 23(2), pp. 163-187., DOI: 10.1016/S0165-4101(97)00006-2
  20. Gromis di Trana M., Alfiero S. (2019), The Role of the ISA 570 “Adverse Key Financial Ratios” in Going Concern Assessment in Italy, Corporate Ownership and Control, 16(4), pp. 8-18.
  21. Guatri L. (1985), Il fronteggiamento delle situazioni di crisi, Finanza, marketing e produzione, 3, p. 11.
  22. Keasey K., Watson R. (1987), Non-financial symptoms and the prediction of small company failure, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 14(3), pp. 335-354.
  23. Kida C.Y. (1998), Financial ratios as predictors of bankruptcy in Japan: An empirical research, Journal of Finance, 123, pp. 589-609.
  24. Koch A. (2002), Financial Distress and the Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts, working paper, University of Virginia -- available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=415580, accessed 28 March 2018.
  25. Lenard M.J., Alam P. (2009), An historical perspective on fraud detection: From bankruptcy models to most effective indicators of fraud in recent incidents, Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting, 1(1), pp. 1-27.
  26. Lugovskaja L. (2009), Predicting default of Russian SMEs on the basis of financial and non-financial variables, Journal of Financial Services Marketing, 14(4), pp. 301-313.
  27. Montanari M. (2019), La procedura di allerta e gli indicatori di crisi nel nuovo codice della crisi d’impresa e dell’insolvenza (d. lgs. 12 gennaio 2019, n. 14). Un accrescimento degli adempimenti burocratici e del rischio reputazione per le piccole e medie imprese?, Il Diritto degli Affari, pp. 1-10.
  28. Morris R. (2018), Early Warning Indicators of Corporate Failure: A Critical Review of Previous Research and Further Empirical Evidence. (London: Routledge).
  29. Ohlson J.A. (1980), Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy, Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), pp. 109-131., DOI: 10.2307/2490395
  30. Panzani L. (2017), Conservazione dell’impresa, interesse pubblico e tutela dei creditori: considerazioni a margine della proposta di direttiva in tema di armonizzazione delle procedure di ristrutturazione, Crisi d’impresa e fallimento.
  31. Persons O.S. (1995), Using financial statement data to identify factors associated with fraudulent financial reporting, Journal of Applied Business Research, 11(3), pp. 38-46.
  32. Pisoni P., Devalle A. (2013), Analisi finanziaria. (Milano: Giuffrè).
  33. Quagli A. (2016), Il concetto di crisi d’impresa come incontro tra la prospettiva aziendale e quella giuridica, Crisi d’impresa e fallimento.
  34. Ranalli R. (2017), Gli indicatori di allerta nel testo del disegno di legge delega della riforma fallimentare approvato dalla Camera; esame critico; rischi per il sistema delle imprese, Crisi d’impresa e fallimento.
  35. Riva P., Comoli M. (2019), The impact of the new Italian early warning system provided by the IC-Code on family SMES governance, Corporate Ownership & Control, 16(3), pp. 64-72.
  36. Riva P., Danovi A., Comoli M., Garelli A. (2018), Corporate Governance in Downturn Times: Detection and Alert – The New Italian Insolvency and Crisis Code in Crisis Management-Theory and Practice, (IntechOpen).
  37. Sirirattanaphonkun S., Pattarathammas M. (2012), Default prediction for small-medium enterprises in emerging market: Evidence from Thailand, Seoul Journal of Business, 18(2), pp. 25-54.
  38. World Bank (2018), Doing Business.
  39. Wiklund J., Baker T., Shepherd D. (2008), The Age-Effect of Financial Indicators as Buffers Against the Liability of Newness, Journal of Business Venturing, 25(4), pp. 423-437.
  40. Zuzàk R. (2017), Early warning systems for strategic and crisis management. (Knowledge for Market Use Proceedings, pp. 459-463. (Olomouc: Palacky University).

Fabrizio Bava, Massimo Cane, Melchior Gromis di Trana, in "FINANCIAL REPORTING" 2/2020, pp. 33-61, DOI:10.3280/FR2020-002002

   

FrancoAngeli è membro della Publishers International Linking Association associazione indipendente e no profit per facilitare l'accesso degli studiosi ai contenuti digitali nelle pubblicazioni professionali e scientifiche