Ecological human imprint: Agroecosystem in Egypt analysis and perspective

Titolo Rivista RIVISTA DI STUDI SULLA SOSTENIBILITA'
Autori/Curatori Safwat H. Shakir Hanna, Gian Paolo Cesaretti
Anno di pubblicazione 2023 Fascicolo 2022/2 Lingua Inglese
Numero pagine 23 P. 41-63 Dimensione file 239 KB
DOI 10.3280/RISS2022-002004
Il DOI è il codice a barre della proprietà intellettuale: per saperne di più clicca qui

Qui sotto puoi vedere in anteprima la prima pagina di questo articolo.

Se questo articolo ti interessa, lo puoi acquistare (e scaricare in formato pdf) seguendo le facili indicazioni per acquistare il download credit. Acquista Download Credits per scaricare questo Articolo in formato PDF

Anteprima articolo

FrancoAngeli è membro della Publishers International Linking Association, Inc (PILA)associazione indipendente e non profit per facilitare (attraverso i servizi tecnologici implementati da CrossRef.org) l’accesso degli studiosi ai contenuti digitali nelle pubblicazioni professionali e scientifiche

The agroecosystem is an integral part of the natural resources available to human beings for use and the continuation of the life cycle on Earth. Agroecosystems are complex systems where many species interact with ecological processes at differ-ent spatial scales and strong interactions between environmental and management procedures (Loeuille et al., 2013). Therefore, these systems encompass ecological-ly, and decision networks connected and perform different functions, leading to a wide range of ecosystem services. They are also linked at the landscape scale, making their management difficult. However, these complex interactions can be formalized within the general concepts of interaction networks, and these can be used to elaborate the interactions within and between ecology and management explicitly. Without an agroecosystem, life on this Earth will stop, and the drivers of all ecological life cycles will not continue functioning. Energy is the essential factor that makes the working process of human survivability possible. According to World Population Clock, human population growth is alarming in Egypt (i.e., 104 million people and continues to increase by 2.2 million people annually [Macro-trends about Egyptian Population Growth Rate). Therefore, the ecological human imprint will impact Egyptian Earth’s natural resources in the form of more con-sumption and demands that will affect Egyptian social and economic issues. Sustainability will be accomplished if we live within the concept of nature, control-ling our human population growth to reduce the impacts of the demands of natu-ral resources. In this respect, sustainability will not be achieved by economic growth alone; instead, the biosphere's natural resources must be able to replenish and allow the natural resources to regenerate themselves to support the growing human population. Egypt’s agroecosystems are facing declining fertile lands, reduction in water re-sources, and expansion of the human population on the agricultural lands for housing and other activities without control. The concentration of the Human Population of Egypt is occupying 4-5% of the total land. It is due to the lack of infrastructure available in the rest of the lands of Egypt (i.e., 96- 97% is desert ex-cept around the river Nile). The Ecological Human Imprint (EHI), as indicated by Shakir Hanna et al. 2017, is a measuring tool for assessing the carrying capacity of an area regarding the use of the planet's natural resources. Therefore, the "Egyp-tian Agroecosystem Human Imprint Assessment (EAHIA) Model" (Shakir Hanna, 2021) indicates the magnitude of the impact of the growing human population on the agroecosystems of Egypt. In addition, the model predicts that the human pop-ulation will reach 187 million people in the year 2050 and may be double by the year 2100 in a reasonable assumption of increased human population growth rate at 1.1%; otherwise, there will be disastrous conditions and the spread of the "Hun-ger Revolution." In addition, the model will calculate the agroecosystem lands, water resources availability, and their production and productivity and economy in Egypt. It predicts the changes and impacts of agriculture systems economically and socially in Egypt and promotes conservation to save agricultural lands from deterioration.

Keywords:Egyptian Agroecosystem Human Imprint Assessment (EAHIA) Mod-el, sustainable development, human population, human imprint.

  1. Agrawala S.M.A., El Raey M., Conway D., van Aalst M., Hagenstad M. & Smith J. (2004). Development and climate change in Egypt: focus on coastal resources and the Nile. Com/env/epoc/dcd/dac 1.
  2. Canadell J. G., Pataki D., Gifford R., Houghton R.A., Lou Y., Raupach M.R., Smith P. & Steffen W. (2007). Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Series. Springer, Berlin. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Series, 59-78.
  3. Countrymeters (2021). Egypt Population. -- https://countrymeters.info/en/Egypt. Accessed on September 6.
  4. Cunningham E. (2012). Could Egypt run out of water by 2025?. Public Radio International, Web. 12 Nov. 2018. -- <https://www.pri.org/stories/2012-04-06/could-egypt-run-out-water-2025>.
  5. El.Sherif M. (2021). Egypt. Food and Agriculture Organization. Accessed on October 24.
  6. FAO (1960-2008). FAOSTAT FAO Statistical Database-Data Series 1960-2008. Food and Agriculture Organization, UN, -- www.fao.org, Rome, Italy.
  7. FAO (2008). FAOSTAT Data Series. Food and Agriculture Organization, UN, www.fao.org, Rome, Italy.
  8. Field C.B., Michael J., Behrenfeld M. J., Randerson J.T. & Falkowsk P. (1998). Primary Production of the Biosphere: Integrating Terrestrial and Oceanic Components. Science, 281: 237-240.
  9. Field C.B., Sarmiento J. & Hales B. (2006). The Carbon Cycle of North America in a Global Context. USA.
  10. Here Before: 400ppm of CO2 Measured in the Atmosphere at Mauna Loa., h. b. u. o. m.-f. w.-n.-b.-h.-b.-p.-o.-c.-m.-i.-t.-a.-a.-m.-l.-U. C. S. W. v. N. B. -- https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/. Accessed on April 9, 2019.
  11. Hunter L.M. (2000). The environmental implications of population dynamics. RAND, RAND, P.O. Box 2138, 1700 Main St. Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138.
  12. Loeuille N., Barot S., Georgelin E., Kylafis G. & Lavigne C. (2013). Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics of Agricultural Networks: Implications for Sustainable Management. Advances in Ecological Research, 49: 339-435.
  13. Ministry of Planning and Economic Development, Egypt (2021). The annual Economic Bulletin FY 20/21. 79 pp. Cairo, Egypt.
  14. Ministry of Plannin, E. (1996). Egypt Human Development. Institute of National Planning.
  15. Network G.F. (2008). Calculation methodology for the national footprint accounts. Global Footprint Network, Oakland, CA, 94607-3510, USA.
  16. Parker D.C., Hessl A. & Davis S.C. (2008). Complexity, land-use modeling, and the human dimension: Fundamental challenges for mapping unknown outcome spaces. Geoforum, 39: 789-804.
  17. Richmond B. (2001). STELLA An Introduction to System Thinking. High Performance Systems, Inc. The System Thinking Company, 165.
  18. Shakir Hanna S.H., Harris K. T., Osborne-Lee I. W., Cesaretti G.P., Misso R. & Andreopoulou Z.S. (2014). Global Ecological Human Imprint, Sustainable Development and Environment: Assessment and Impacts. Eur. J. Sustain. Dev.
  19. Sabine C.L., Heimann M., Artaxo P., Bakker D.C.E., Arthur Chen C.-T., Field C. B., Gruber N., Quéré C.L., Prinn R.G., Richey J.E., Lankao P.R., Sathaye J.A. & Valentini R. (2004). Current Status and Past Trends of the Global Carbon Cycle. In: Field C. B. and Raupach M. R. (editors). Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate and the Natural World. Washington, Covelo, London: Ialand Press, 17-44.
  20. SAS (2011). SAS/STAT Product Documentation. SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC. -- http://support.sas.com/documentation/onlinedoc/stat/.
  21. SAS (2011). SAS/STAT User’s Guide {Procedures). SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC., -- http://support.sas.com/documentation/onlinedoc/stat/indexproc.html#stat93.
  22. Scientist U. C. Accessed 2021 -- https://blog.ucsusa.org/melanie-fitzpatrick/weve-never-been-here-before-400ppm-of-co2-measured-in-the-atmosphere-at-mauna-loa-126? Union Concerned Scientist We’ve Never Been Here Before: 400ppm of CO2 Measured in the Atmosphere at Mauna Loa.
  23. Shakir Hanna S.H., Cesaretti G.P. & Misso R. (2017). Ecological Human Imprint: Global Agro Ecosystem, Balance of Human Race with Nature and Economic Sustainability. Rivista di Studi sulla Sostenibilità, 7-30.
  24. Shakir Hanna S.H. Ecological Human Imprint: Agroecosystem in Egypt Analysis and Perspective. (in Press).
  25. SPSSSCIENC (2002). SigmaplotVersion 8. -- www. spssscience. com/sigmaplot.
  26. Srour M. (2021). Water Scarcity and Poor Water Management Makes Life Difficult for Egyptians Inter Press Service (ipsnews.net).
  27. STELLA (2006). Isee System Technical Document for the iThink and STELLA Software. -- Available at: http://www.iseesystems.com.
  28. STELLA (2010). Stella®, High Performance System, Inc., USA. 2010. -- Available at: http://www.hps-inc.com/ stellavpsr.htm.
  29. SYSTATSSOFTWARE (2014). SIGMAPLOT Version 13. SIGMAPLOT Version 13. -- https://systatsoftware.com/products/sigmaplot/.
  30. USAID (2022). EG-Ag_Sector_EN_2022.pdf. AGRICULTURE.
  31. UN (2018). UN Water-UN World Water Development Report. -- https://www.unwater.org/publication_categories/ world-water-development-report/.
  32. UN (2021). Combating Desertification and Drought, Development & Aid, Environment, Featured, Headlines, Middle East & North Africa, Natural Resources, Regional Categories,. TerraViva United Nations, Water & Sanitation. Regional Categories - IPS Inter Press Service - News Agency - Journalism & Communication for Global Change (ipsnews.net).
  33. UNDP. Acessed 2019 Human Development Data (1990-2017). -- http://hdr.undp.org/en/data. UNDP Human Development Data (1990-2017). -- http://hdr.undp.org/en/data.
  34. UNDP (2013). The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World. Human Development Report. . The United Nations Development Programme. Gilmore Printing Services Inc., Canada, 216 pp.
  35. UNEP (2009). A Planet in Ecological Debt, Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. UNEP -- http://maps.grida.
  36. UNEP (2009). A Planet in Ecological Debt, Arendal Maps and Graphics Library: UNEP -- http://maps.grida.
  37. UNEP (2017). The Emissions Gap, A UN Environment Synthesis Report. -- https://blog.ucsusa.org/melanie-fitzpatrick/weve-never-been-here-before-400ppm-of-co2-measured-in-the-atmosphere-at-mauna-loa-126?.
  38. UNFPA (2001). The State of World Population.
  39. Vernadsky V. (1998). The Biosphere. New York: Copernicus Publication Langmuir.
  40. Vernadsky V. (2007). Geochemistry and the Biosphere. Synergetic Press.
  41. Vernadsky V. (1926). The Biosphere.
  42. Vitalsigns (2012). population. -- https://www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/population.
  43. Wackernagel M., Monfreda C., Deumling D., Gurarie E., Friedman S., Linares A. C., Sánchez M.A.V., Falfán I.S.L., Loh J., Randers S.J. & Monfreda C. (2002). World Wildlife Fund (WWF). -- www.panda.org, International. Avenue du Mont-Blanc, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland.
  44. Wackernagel S.M.M., Rizk S., Reed A., Kitzes J., Peller A., Niazi E.B.S., Galli A., Wada Y., Moran D., Williams R., H.A.Y. a. M. & Backer W.D.M. (2008). Living Planet Report. World Wide Fund (WWF). International Avenue, and S. du Mont-Blanc 1196 Gland, 2008. 2008. Living Planet Report. World Wide Fund (WWF).
  45. Wally A. (2017). Egypt Grain and Feed Annual: Egypt Streamlines Its Grain Import Procedures and Eases Import Regulations While Rice Exports Should Begin To Rebound Over The Coming Year. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Foreign Agricultural Service. Global Agricultural Information Service. -- https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent GAIN Publications/Grain and Feed Annual_Cairo_Egypt_3-15-2017.pdf.
  46. WorldBank (1960-2008). Data Series and Research. . The World Bank worldbank.org/topic/ agriculture-and rural-development.
  47. World-Bank (2011). World Bank. Global Strategy To Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics. Report No. 56719-GLB. 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433.
  48. WRI (1960-2005). EarthTrends Environmental Information, World Resource Institute (WRI). World Resource Institute:WRI http://Earthtrends.wri.org/.
  49. WRI (2000). World Resources Institute 2000-2001. People and Ecosystems:The Fraying Web of Life. WorldResources Institute (WRI), Washington DC, USA.
  50. WWF (2002). The Global Conservation Organization, Living planet report/ footprint.
  51. WWF (2002). Living Planet Report, World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), -- http://www.panda.org/livingplanet., Geneva, Switzerland.
  52. WWF (2004). WWF, Living Planet Report, World-Wide Fund for Nature International (WWF). Global Footprint Network, UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre. WWF, Gland, Switzerland. -- http://www.panda.org/livingplanet.
  53. WWF (2006). Living Planet Report. World Wide Fund (WWF) for Nature, Gland, Switzerland -- http:// www.panda.org/livingplanet.
  54. WWF (2008). Living Planet Report. World Wide Fund (WWF), -- www.panda.org, International Avenue du Mont-Blanc 1196 Gland, Switzerland.
  55. WWF (2010). Living Planet Report. World Wide Fund for Nature. Gland, Switzerland.
  56. WWF (2012). Living Planet Report 2012. Biodiversity, biocapacity and better choices. Lead editors: Rosamunde Almond and Richard McLellan. WWF.

Safwat H. Shakir Hanna, Gian Paolo Cesaretti, Ecological human imprint: Agroecosystem in Egypt analysis and perspective in "RIVISTA DI STUDI SULLA SOSTENIBILITA'" 2/2022, pp 41-63, DOI: 10.3280/RISS2022-002004